SUBSCRIBE:

Saturday, January 05, 2008


In Recession


Employment number has been quite a reliable predictor for recession. Friday's employment report was quite ugly. In the past, a sharp rise of unemployment rate (0.6% this time, from cycle low 4.4% to 5%) always predicted recessions. A similar measure, y-o-y change of employment, indicates we are heading toward one.
Read James Hamilton's similar comments here.