Barry Ritholtz thinks we may need to shift our focus to the continuing claims and he presented a convincing graph to show that we are already in recession.
"Observe the CUIC (continuing unemployment insurance claims), YoY, 4 Week MA:
Every time this has moved above 10%, we have been in a recession. If you want a margin of safety, use 15%. The current reading: 19.5% -- is deep into recessionary levels -- despite INITIAL CLAIMS being below 400k".
(click to enlarge)
